B.Sc. University of Trento, Italy 2004
M.Sc. University of Trento, Italy 2006
Ph.D. University of Trento, Italy 2009

• Senior Research Scientist (tenured), Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy
• Research Scientist (tenure track), Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy
• Researcher (non-tenure track), Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy

Scholarly Interest

My research leverages mathematical/computational modeling and data science to provide a quantitative framework for:

• Understanding the key determinants and population processes that shape the epidemiology of infectious diseases;
• Interpreting empirical evidence and integrating it with model-based results to address public health questions.

Most of my research has a key practical goal: support public health evidence-based decision-making.

View full publication list at Google Scholar

Merler S, Ajelli M. Deciphering the relative weights of demographic transition and vaccination in the decrease of measles incidence in Italy. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 281(1777):20132676, 2014

Merler S, Ajelli M, Fumanelli L, Gomes MFC, Pastore y Piontti A, Rossi L, Chao DL, Longini IM Jr, Halloran ME, Vespignani A. Spatiotemporal spread of the 2014 outbreak of Ebola virus disease in Liberia and the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions: a computational modelling analysis. The Lancet Infectious Diseases, 384(9961):2201-2206, 2015

Liu Q-H, Ajelli M, Aleta A, Merler S, Moreno Y, Vespignani A. Measurability of the epidemic reproduction number in data-driven contact networks. PNAS 115(50):12680–12685, 2018

Litvinova M, Liu Q-H, Kulikov ES, Ajelli M. Reactive school closure weakens the network of social interactions and the reduces spread of influenza. PNAS 116(27):13174-13181, 2019

Chinazzi M, Davis JT, Ajelli M, Gioannini C, Litvinova M, Merler S, Pastore y Piontti A, Mu K, Rossi L, Sun K, Viboud C, Xiong X, Yu H, Halloran ME, Longini IM Jr, Vespignani A. The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. Science eaba9757, 2020

Zhang J, Litvinova M, Wang W, Wang Y, Deng X, Chen X, Li M, Zheng W, Yi L, Chen X, Wu Q, Liang Y, Wang X, Yang J, Sun K, Longini IM Jr, Halloran ME, Wu P, Cowling BJ, Merler S, Viboud C, Vespignani A, Ajelli M, Yu H. Evolving epidemiology and transmission dynamics of coronavirus disease 2019 outside Hubei province, China: a descriptive and modelling study. The Lancet Infectious Diseases 3099(20):30230-9, 2020

Zhang J, Litvinova M, Liang Y, Wang Y, Wang W, Zhao S, Wu Q, Merler S, Viboud C, Vespignani A, Ajelli M, Yu H. Changes in contact patterns shape the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China. Science eabb8001, 2020

Sun K, Wang W, Gao L, Wang Y, Luo K, Ren L, Zhan Z, Chen X, Zhao S, Huang Y, Sun Q, Liu Z, Litvinova M, Vespignani A, Ajelli M, Viboud C, Yu H. Transmission heterogeneities, kinetics, and controllability of SARS-CoV-2. Science eabe2424, 2020

Wang W, Wu Q, Yang J, Dong K, Chen X, Bai X, Chen X, Chen Z, Viboud C, Ajelli M, Yu H. Global, regional, and national estimates of target population sizes for COVID-19 vaccination: Descriptive analysis. British Medical Journal, 2020

Marziano V, Guzzetta G, Rondinone BM, Boccuni F, Riccardo F, Bella A, Poletti P, Trentini F, Pezzotti P, Brusaferro S, Rezza G, Iavicoli S, Ajelli M, Merler S. Retrospective analysis of the Italian exit strategy from COVID-19 lockdown. PNAS, 2020